DISQUS

Jonathan Kleiman · 1 year ago

P/E ratios of 100 are pretty hard to justify without seeing a nice plan to generate revenue. I assume one exists.

Jonathan Kleiman · 1 year ago

then again... when was the last time something that looked every bit like a fad got valuations of 100x their rev?

srini kumar · 1 year ago

I think the financial picture doesn't take into account the strategic picture.

What Ballmer and Murdoch and Zuckerberg are considering is that happy social network and web application users are basically locked in. API's mean that these users won't even get quite so bored over time because third party developers and content creators will continue to keep their platforms fresh. Finally, someday the "cost-per-click" business model innovation that saved Google will be echoed with social networks. Someone's going to figure out how to monetize these things. Souls locked into platforms - that is the strategic significance of social networking.

It is also close to a zero-sum game - users probably have a certain number of web 2.0 type sites they'll bother to use frequently - and that's it. There may be some evolution or disruption of this order someday, but there is also a great likelihood that it'll be like TV before cable - there will be a Big Three, and then a few independent successes, and then the long tail. Who those Big Three will turn out to be is the subject of the MS bid for Yahoo - MS will not be locked out of that brandspace, and without Yahoo it does not look good for them.