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I think ad supported models will last. However, I think performance will be the determining factor. Social networks like MySpace has certainly proven that ad performance is largely situational. In a MySpace like environment, ads are largely ignored. Creative page variations are huge distractions.
In other environments, LinkedIn for example, ads are considered premium. LinkedIn's recent report that they are generating CPMs as large as $75 is a great example. Quality, targeted ways to reach premium highly sought after individuals such as baby-boomers and generation Xers will continue to dive advertisers to spend money. Outside of search, Internet advertising will become more and more about brand impressions vs. clicks. Broadband proliferation has created better opportunities for video and rich-media ads.
It is clear that attention has clearly shifted to the Internet. In a world where content has become plentiful, context is now King! Content without context yields low CPMs and every lower CPCs. Platforms that target and focus on both, will always be sought after.
I think marketers need to understand that and make their plans accordingly: paid search is for lead generation, sns are for branding. Attempting to use sns for lead generation might even have negative branding effects (see Schlitz). We'll see how this pans out in two to four years.
Btw, I drink neither.
What I believe, and in fact am betting on, is that a start up that can combine unique, quality content inside a very specific context or social network will have substantial value to advertisers. Basically, if there is appropriate context, i.e. a social network of tightly defined high net worth or demographically desirable people, and in that context there is top quality content, you will get the higher CPM that investors are looking for.
Advertising is always going to have a place, but I agree, the ocean is now so vast that unless the content is placed in context it's value is only going to decrease.