Social Times - Latest Comments in Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

psikolog — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 07:21:54 -0000

thanks a lot

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

beslenme — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 06:36:27 -0000

Thanks .Where I agree with you that the chart may be too optimistic is in the on-going growth. Communities in the growth phase do generate a lot of new users because people see a visible activity happening (i.e. joining the community) but once that growth slows down, so does the activity. If users aren't seeing activity, they are going to drift away. They may not delete their account but will effectively abandon the site.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Erzurum — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 11:52:38 -0000

I think that Real Estate still is a very favourable and safe type of investment, however it all depends on the country being invested in. Europe has not been affected by the crisis badly so it should be ok...
All the best,
Thanks.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Estetik — Sun, 24 May 2009 13:26:35 -0000

If a community follows the best practices laid out in the report, I believe that the chart is definitely applicable. But this requires ongoing and active community management, plus continual outreach and evangelism. Once you get on the community "hamster wheel", you have to keep running to maintain nominal growth in the maturity phase.thanks a lot

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Telecommunications — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:42:29 -0000

Even after the early majority have adopted the product (or community in this case), it continues to grow.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Ceramic Fibre Rope — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:41:24 -0000

My biggest concern with his chart is that it defies traditional logic.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

spot coolers — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:38:55 -0000

suggesting that a community will grow indefinitely is absolutely ridiculous

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Lennox Furnace Part — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:36:06 -0000

these online communities appear to have continued growth even past the standard maturation phase of the business.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

lennox air filters — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:34:34 -0000

While valuation in internet businesses may not be completely ridiculous, suggesting that a community will grow indefinitely is absolutely ridiculous.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Aprilaire Part — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:32:12 -0000

If you take a look at this graph you may think, wow this is definitely how I’d like my community to end up.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Diyet — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 14:01:49 -0000

thanks a lot
The commercial networks right now may play out like this chart, but I think there is something specific and important that is not reflected in this chart and that is the challenge of multimembership and the proliferation of network alternatives.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Akvaryum — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 18:18:51 -0000

Great idea.
I think you are right on with picking apart the last phase of Jeremiah's graph. I don't know if the Chasm model and a community growth model are complete overlaps, and it is also damn near impossible to generalize a community growth model in the first place.Thanks.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Dorukta — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 15:05:47 -0000

thanks a lot

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Biyografiler — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 15:03:54 -0000

Thanks a lot

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Jeremiah Owyang — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 10:43:47 -0000

Nick

Thanks for taking the time to write this great feedback. I stayed out of the conversation here in the comments, as well, the comments are very insightful. I've read all the comments here several times, and must say, there's quite a bit to learn.

Please note this graphic is intended to represent a community in it's most ideal process --likely, many won't be able to achieve this type of curve as you and many others have noted.

your feedback is important to me, and I've featured it prominently in my recap of the community reviews:

http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/2008/02/22/c...

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Tom Humbarger — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 11:40:40 -0000

I agree that Jeremiah is just looking at the lifecycle curve of successful communities. Communities that are not successful will not last as they will lose their funding and their focus and/or will be shut down.

If a community follows the best practices laid out in the report, I believe that the chart is definitely applicable. But this requires ongoing and active community management, plus continual outreach and evangelism. Once you get on the community "hamster wheel", you have to keep running to maintain nominal growth in the maturity phase.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Carter Lusher — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:28:46 -0000

As a conceptual model to stimulate conversation, I think that Jeremiah - and Nick - succeeded. ;>

There are a number of ways that this graph can be applied. Is it to a specific community or the general concept of community? If specific and narrow community (e.g., one's family), then yes, a successful community can reach a state zero growth if all possible members have joined. For a more general community (e.g., IT workers, 100m+ according to US Census)then growth can go on forever in theory because the set of possible members is so large, new people are coming into the population set even as others are leaving, etc.

So this graphic's usefullness is dependent on the context of the conversation.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

whitneymcn — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:25:12 -0000

When thinking about social networks I'd be inclined to consider the hype cycle (I believe the term comes out of Gartner) as a factor.

While it's framed in terms of introducing a new technology, I think the hype cycle is applicable to "social" tech/tools/sites that don't necessarily introduce truly "new" tech; because user adoption is a central element of any explicitly social software, publicity and attention can have really dramatic effects on both the perceived and actual value and effectiveness of the site/tool.

Stage 1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

Stage 2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

Stage 3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

Stage 4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

Stage 5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

jptrenn — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:19:11 -0000

Not having read the report, two more points. And these aren't criticisms, but points to ponder.

1) Often innovators and early adopters become less active and less enthusiastic about communities once the masses hit. This can cause a change in the nature and culture of the community itself. That may be for the best, or it may siphon off energy and insight from some key members.

2) Don't know if the report addresses this, but let's not forget the concept of competition. More direct: MySpace to Facebook. Or indirect: blogging to twittering. I'm sure that within industries, there will be competing communities develop overtime...and if the leader is not careful, an upstart may challenge and take over. Consider Hillary vs. Obama.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Nancy White — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:09:53 -0000

Since I can't read the report, my response may be out of context. But I don't think what the chart references is a community by my definition, which is a bounded set of people. Communities don't scale out and out.

Most commercial "communities" (which I assume Jeremiah is talking about) are actually networks and the people in them change over time. There may very likely be communities that form and persist over time as well, but their growth is never continually up. Then tend to find a stasis point which doesn't change much.

The commercial networks right now may play out like this chart, but I think there is something specific and important that is not reflected in this chart and that is the challenge of multimembership and the proliferation of network alternatives.

Right now, for example, social network sites are hot and have a huge growth. But we are starting to see the fatigue (too many widgets, to many alerts and messages with no granularity to their usefulness or aggregation in ways that makes sense to the individual, my friend just invited me to another network, my "friend" who I don't really know started spamming me.)

No amount of ongoing management and continual improvements is going to be able to control the impact and draw/drain of the larger market of networks. It can fight against it, but the fact is people are fickle and will move on.

The differentiation will be those sub communities that form and persist. One strategy to explore is how to create the welcoming space for those communities, and expect the number of communities to grow, rather than the size of any one community.

Then you have not one single upward curve, but many that weave into a successful vortex that persists even though MANY people will come and go.

An example of this is the Share Your Story community at http://www.shareyourstory.org

I get a bit concerned about the hyping of community as well. This is more an intuitive than logical data-driven response, but the image above is more hype than reality as it stands on its own. I'd love to see it reframed from a network perspective which I think is both more scaleable and sustainable.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Nick O'Neill — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:06:44 -0000

@Andrew, I completely agree. The only thing that I think is important here is we have one of two things:

1) A complete phenomenon in which the traditional business cycle is being redefined, or

2) A small-picture analysis. While the curve may vary on the micro level I think it should follow the general life-cycle trend on the macro level.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Andrew Wright (@batterista) — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:06:14 -0000

You could assume that the chasm on Jeremiah's chart is getting from launch/kick-start to growth. Jeremiah's just making the assumption here that the chasm has been crossed and isn't factoring it in.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Andrew Wright (@batterista) — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:04:12 -0000

Nick: It is an interesting question about when the decline happens. It's really the $100,000 question, since we're still in a very nascent stage and it is yet to be determined (one or two cases, such as Friendster, are not enough to build a reliable model). Adoption, at some point, must flatline, as there are only so many people in the world, unless you assume that your growth rate will mirror world population growth.

Regarding the chart I linked to showing a decline, think about it it in the case of the television. In the late 40's, early adopters were buying them, then in the early 50's, the early majority were buying them, and usage rates were spiking. By the late 50's, the late majority were buying them, and adoption was moving DOWN the curve, overall usage rates were still climbing...just not at the frantic pace as before. Moving down one curve, but up another (jeremiah's).

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Bill Johnston — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:02:31 -0000

Hi Nick - Great post. I think you are right on with picking apart the last phase of Jeremiah's graph. I don't know if the Chasm model and a community growth model are complete overlaps, and it is also damn near impossible to generalize a community growth model in the first place.

With all of that said, I would say Jeremiah's graphic should show more of a circle at the top right for successful "mature" communities that are serving a market with lots of products and services being introduced over time. The circle shows a fairly static overall base and accounts for new members and attrition. For unsuccessful or shrinking communities, the graph should decline.

Bottom line: you are right to point out that growth doesn't extend into infinity.

Re: Do Social Networks Follow the Traditional Business Cycle

Steve Thompson — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 10:02:14 -0000

Good post! I haven't read Jeremiah's full report but based on the excerpt and diagram I have seen, I agree with you.

From my experiences building online communities, they follow the normal lifecycle and you expect a peak of member activity (Jeremiah's vertical axis) but then a steady decline. I find that is because the people who just browse a community will over time drift away leaving a baseline of core participants who use and are active.

There are some good rules that a community can utilize to prolong the period of maximum activity and keep the level of enthusiasm up (but at best I think they maintain member activity rather than perpetually increase it). I find that maintaining a clear community purpose that resonates with the members, archiving old content so that new material is easy to reach, committing time to sustain and encourage members (isn't it always the case?) and keeping track of what is happening in the community (so you can react and adapt) are essentials.

Maybe Jeremiah or other people have ways to continually improve a community that I'm not familiar with? I'd be really interested to know what they were!

Cheers, Steve.