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I don't understand why they do their maintenance when they do?
And yes, someone could start something else and could get a migration - but it would depend on timing. Could you get the top 10-20 people with most followers over to your new service? That would be Scoble, Brogan, etc. Is there a time in which they all would be sick of Twitter because of the broken functionalities that would actually end up in a mass exodus to something extremely similar?
Facebook is no Twitter. It's an application thang. People don't want a whole browser window to be open all day; take up too much screen real estate. People like their little AIR apps in the corner of their screen sitting open all day to check in from time to time.